Session 4: Roy Havemann - Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress

0:00:00 - Introduction
0:00:13 - Slide 1: Introduction
0:00:37 - Slide 2: Overview
0:01:08 - Slide 3: Motivation and contribution
0:02:18 - Slide 4: Contribution to the literature
0:02:44 - Slide 5: Some stylised facts
0:04:12 - Slide 6: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g
0:07:35 - Slide 7: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g past few years
0:08:18 - Question
0:09:05 - Slide 7: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g past few years
0:09:25 - Slide 8: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g past few years
0:10:46 - Slide 9: Stylised fact 1: South Africa is in fiscal stress r greater than g
0:11:14 - Slide 10: Stylised fact 1: South Africa is in fiscal stress r - g greater than 0
0:11:48 - Slide 11: Stylised fact 1: South Africa is in fiscal stress r - g greater than pbsus
0:12:29 - Slide 12: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 1
0:13:05 - Slide 13: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 2
0:13:43 - Slide 14: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 3
0:14:12 - Slide 15: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 4
0:15:30 - Slide 16: Stylised fact 3: Fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policy have been poorly coordinated
0:16:12 - Slide 17: Stylised fact 4: We are operating in a second-best world
0:18:07 - Slide 18: Methodology - Optimal policy and loss function
0:19:19 - Slide 19: Optimal policy: Optimal simple rules
0:20:25 - Slide 20: Results - Optimal fiscal policy
0:21:28 - Slide 21: Results - Optimal fiscal policy
0:21:43 - Slide 22: Results - Optimal policy coordination
0:21:51 - Slide 20: Results - Optimal fiscal policy
0:22:18 - Slide 21: Results - Optimal fiscal policy
0:22:18 - Slide 22: Results - Optimal policy coordination
0:22:26 - Slide 25: Counterfactuals
0:22:30 - Question
0:25:28 - Question
0:30:19 - Question
0:33:34 - Question
0:33:36 - Question
0:36:04 - Question
0:40:37 - Slide 25: Counterfactuals
0:40:47 - Slide 26: Counterfactual - Debt stabilisation
0:41:11 - Slide 26: Counterfactual - Debt stabilisation
0:41:20 - Slide 27: Impact on output of scenarios
0:41:26 - Slide 28: Sustainability gap
0:41:29 - Slide 29: Impact on long-rates estimate of r
0:41:41 - Slide 30: Inflation and the short-term policy rate
0:41:46 - Slide 31: COVID-19, monetary policy, and debt stabilisation
0:42:24 - Slide 34: Conclusion - what to do when r greater than g?
0:44:02 - Chair: Outro

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